Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS‐E2.1
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in GISS-E2.1 climate models for 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of NASA Goddard Institute Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions atmospheric composition: A non-interactive (NINT) with prescribed composition a tuned aerosol indirect effect One-Moment Aerosol (OMA) fully interactive aerosols which parameterized first on clouds. effective sensitivities are 3.0°C 2.9°C NINT OMA models, respectively. Each is ocean models: GISS (E2.1-G) HYCOM (E2.1-H). We describe global mean responses all future spatial patterns change surface air temperature precipitation four marker scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP5-8.5. By 2100, warming ranges from 1.5°C 5.2°C relative 1,850–1,880 temperature. Two high-mitigation SSP1-1.9 SSP1-2.6 limit below 2°C by end century, except E2.1-H simulates 2.2°C warming. For high scenario SSP5-8.5, range 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due about 15% larger sensitivity stronger transient both CMIP6 compared CMIP5 versions, there 2100 SSP than comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) CMIP5. Changes sea ice area highly correlated anomalies show steep declines hemispheres, largest decreases occurring during September Northern Hemisphere E2.1-G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) (−0.94 km2/°C). Both project Atlantic overturning stream function decrease 56%–65% produced warmest SSP5-8.5 model, reduction corresponding GISS-E2 RCP8.5 simulation. low-end also simulate substantial reductions (9%–37%) slow recovery 10% (relative maximum middle century).
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1942-2466']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ms002871